This page shows current Alerts for Blow-Up Fire Event potential. ISSUE DATE: | Current SSTA charts (NOAA Coral Reef Watch) Click maps to see at full size on NOAA site. ![]() ![]() |
LEVEL 1 | Current Alert Status:
![]() [Click on image to enlarge.] ANALYSIS: There is a Level 1 Alert in place due to river drying events. A Level 1 Alert on its own is likely by November.UPDATE: There is a Level 2 Alert in place as stream flows have already started dring up, ahead of summer conditions.Due to El Nino - Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole events reducing zonal moisture feeds and the Southern Annular Mode keeping cold fronts to the south, there is widespread discussion about the outlook for areas facing a severe fire season. Extreme Wildfires, and their different drivers, now need to be included. | ||
LEVEL 2 | Current Alert Status:
There is a potential for Blow Up Fire Events on significant bushfires that are in forested areas in regions with red dots (map, above) and meet certain criteria. This will persist until
Those criteria form Level 3 of the HPF. It is expected that FBANs or Technical Experts would conduct Level 3 analyses and generate Intelligence Products for the Incident Management Team to consider. | ||
LEVEL 3
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With a Level 2 Alert issued the bushfire threat covered here should now include the prospect of Extreme Wildfires as well, especially in areas not burnt in 2019/2020. The official outlook does not suggest a raised potential for many of the forested areas of the southeast. However the potential for reburns, especially in Dry Sclerophyll Forests (some of which may have largely recovered from 2019/2020), should be monitored. Operations at Level 3 require a trained FBAN or equivalent Technical Expert to use the BUFO2 model to assess the potential for a Blow-Up Fire Event during an on-going fire. This requires a series of data feeds specified in the model, Click here for the BUFO2 worksheet.Click here for a PowerPoint presentation on BUFO2, from a workshop at the AFAC21 Conference.Could anyone using the spreadsheet during the HPF trail please copy their results to us. | ||
Page prepared by: Adjunct Professor Rick McRae UNSW Canberra School of Science Bushfire Research Group r.mcrae@adfa.edu.au | ![]() |
BASISThis work is based on analyses of data from Black Summer. The structure of the four-tier Hierarchical Prediction System is designed to progress into smaller-scales of timeframe and function, shifting from seasonal outlook to incident operations: | ||
![]() HPF is described in a peer-reviewed paper in the October 2023 edition of the Australian Journal of Emergency Management. |
LEVEL 2 SOURCE DATAThe table and map below describe the stream flow reference sites used. | ||
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