This page shows current Alerts for Blow-Up Fire Event potential.ISSUE DATE: | Current SSTA charts (NOAA Coral Reef Watch) Click maps to see at full size on NOAA site. |
LEVEL 1 | Current Alert Status: THERE IS NO ALERT.[Click on image to enlarge.] ANALYSIS: There no alert in place.There are three dynamics being monitored as we go forward into warmer weather. (1) Temperatures in Canberra are currently running well above average (roughly 5°C above expected). (2) SSTAs are trending to cooler values. (3) SSTAs were very high in early 2024, but these will eventually move out of the 12-month averaging window.These three have the potential to produce very high dipole values later this coming summer. | ||
LEVEL 2 | Current Alert Status: THERE IS NO ALERT.ANALYSIS: Over winter all river flow sites in the east increased away from trigger levels. Some are now trending towards dry. BoM rainfall data (see below) indicate that much of the area between Sydney and Adelaide has received relatively low rainfall over the last two months. This could indicate a flash drought, which will require careful monitoring. | ||
LEVEL 3
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With no alert in place, it is recommended that FBANs and other technical specialists learn more about BUFEs. Operations at Level 3 require use of the BUFO2 model to assess the potential for a BUFE during an on-going fire. This requires a series of data feeds specified in the model. It is suggested that FBANs should skill-up on using the BUFO2 model.
Click here for the BUFO2 worksheet.Click here for a PowerPoint presentation on BUFO2, from a workshop at the AFAC21 Conference.Could anyone using the spreadsheet during the HPF trail please copy their results to us. | ||
Page prepared by: Adjunct Professor Rick McRae UNSW Canberra School of Science Bushfire Research Group r.mcrae@unsw.edu.au |
BASISThis work is based on both analyses of data from Black Summer and operational work. The structure of the four-tier Hierarchical Prediction System is designed to progress into smaller-scales of timeframe and function, shifting from seasonal outlook to incident operations: | ||
HPF is described in a peer-reviewed paper in the October 2023 edition of the Australian Journal of Emergency Management. |
LEVEL 2 SOURCE DATAThe table and map below describe the stream flow reference sites used. | ||
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1. Clyde R at Brooman (site ID 216002) Min. level = 0.40 m. | |||
2. Macdonald R at Howes Valley (site ID 212021) Min. level = -0.10 m. This site has questionable data - the river is notorious for silting up after major wildfires. | |||
3. Goobarragandra R at Macs Crossing (site ID 41000261) Min. level = 0.90 m. | |||
4. Macalister R at Glencairn (site ID 225219) Min. level = 0.30 m. | |||
5. Towamba R at Towamba (site ID 220004) Min. level = 0.35 m. | |||
6. Kowmung R at Cedar Ford (site ID 212260) Min. level = 0.40 m. | |||
7. Mann R at Mitchell (site ID 204014) Min. level = 0.20 m. | |||
8. Clarence R at Paddys Flat (site ID 204051) Min. level = 0.55 m. | |||
9. Hastings R at Mt Seaview (site ID 207015 Min. level = 0.55 m. | |||
10. Barrington R at Bobs Crossing (site ID 208001) Min. level = 0.58 m. | |||
11. Murrumbidgee R above Tantangara Reservoir (site ID 410535) Min. level = 0.45 m. | |||
12. Tooma River at Pinegrove (site ID 401014B) Min. level = 0.88m. The Federal Government has gazetted the previously used site (Tooma R above Tooma Reservoir, site ID 401554) as a Commercially Sensitive Site under the Water Regulations 2008. It has been removed from this page. | |||
13. Shoalhaven R at Hillview (site ID 215208) Min. level = 0.45 m. | |||
14. Queanbeyan R at Tinderry (site ID 410734) Min. level = 0.70 m. | |||
15. Reedy Creek (site ID 403221) Min. level = 0.22 m. | |||
16. Wadbilliga R at Wadbilliga (site ID 218007) Min. level = 0.75 m. | |||
17. Gudgenby R at Mt Tennent (site ID 410731) Min. level = 0.45 m. | |||
18. Hopkins R at Ararat (site ID 236219) Min. level = 0.075 m. | |||
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