WILDFIRE: LATEST LEARNINGS- v01.6

WILDFIRE: LATEST LEARNINGS

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General learning outcome:

FIRE MANAGEMENT:

Specific learning outcome:

Predicting fire spread must include these concepts.

Topic:

Methods of incorporating key events and landscape setting into predictions of fire spread.

Expert Awareness for Fire Behaviour Analysts


Almost all fire behaviour prediction systems in use are based on a Fire Danger Index or equivalent. These do not incorporate the key interactions between rugged terrain and weather that act to produce extreme fires.
It is important not to base key decisions on inappropriate information.
FDIs assume that fire danger is a continuum i.e. as the weather gets worse the FDI smoothly rises in response, as vice versa.
The additional drivers tend to be discrete they are either active or not. Thus the first step towards fire prediction are a series of questions. For example, if the flame depth exceeds the lifting condensation level, then a pyro-Cb may form, and then the spread will reflect the upper winds only. A rectangular area aligned downwind, 15km wide and 25km wide is then the area under threat.
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This website is dedicated to bringing forward the latest research findings. They are provided to allow firefighters to be made aware of critical safety issues ahead of the material being included in the national training curriculum.
Material prepared by Rick McRae for AFAC Research Dissemination Pilot Study, March 2012.