HIGHFIRE RISK PROJECT

BLOW-UP FIRE EVENT (BUFE) POTENTIAL
SOUTH-EAST AUSTRALIA

--The Hierarchical Predictive Framework--

Level 1: ; Level 2:
This page shows current Alerts for Blow-Up Fire Event potential.

MID-MONTH UPDATE ISSUE DATE:
17 SEPTEMBER 2026.

This is an Operational Tool.
It is an intelligence product to aid in informed decision making, and should not be used in any other way.

A REQUEST

If anyone uses this model operationally, can they please send their results to the author:
Rick McRae
Current daily SSTA charts
(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)
Click maps to see at full size on NOAA site.
Current monthly Indian Ocean SSTA chart
Current monthly Pacific Ocean SSTA chart
Recent NASA GRACE Soil Moisture Map (https://nasagrace.unl.edu/). [Click on image to enlarge.]
Recent NASA GRACE Soil Moisture Map

LEVEL 1
CANBERRA DIPOLE



This reflects interactions between land and sea that influence synoptic patterns conducive to wildfires (or rain).

Data: 		Current Alert Status:

NO ALERT



[Click on image to enlarge.]

ANALYSIS: Cooler weather has reduced fire risks, and the drought load has reduced in many - but not all - areas.
Seas offshore from SE Australia remain persistently hot (elevated SSTAs). If these were to dissipate, and given that a strong El Nino event has formed, then careful monitoring of the HPF would be essential.

LEVEL 2
RIVER DRYING EVENTS




Current Alert Status:

NO ALERT.


ANALYSIS: Mid-month update: A set of stream-flows east of the Great Divide are showing some potential to head to low flows over the coming month. While there is no Level 2 Alert, there is a need to monitor how this evolves. It MAY be linked to the "Super El-Nino" event. This is a border-line call, but the potential El Nino effects require vigilance.
All flows north of the Hunter River are elevated, so the early fire season in Queensland and NE NSW seems unlikely to be affected.

[Click image to enlarge.]

LEVEL 3
BLOW-UP FIRE OUTLOOK

 It is recommended that FBANs and other technical specialists learn more about BUFEs. Operations at Level 3 require use of the BUFO2 model to assess the potential for a BUFE during an on-going fire. This requires a series of data feeds specified in the model. It is suggested that FBANs should skill-up on using the BUFO2 model.

Click here for the BUFO2 worksheet.

Click here for a PowerPoint presentation on BUFO2, from a workshop at the AFAC21 Conference.
Could anyone using the spreadsheet during the HPF trail please copy their results to us.
Page prepared by:
Adjunct Professor Rick McRae
UNSW Canberra
School of Science
Bushfire Research Group
r.mcrae@unsw.edu.au

BASIS


This work is based on both analyses of data from Black Summer and operational work.
The structure of the four-tier Hierarchical Prediction System is designed to progress into smaller-scales of timeframe and function, shifting from seasonal outlook to incident operations:

HPF is described in a peer-reviewed paper in the October 2023 edition of the Australian Journal of Emergency Management. A follow-up paper reports on HPF performance in the following year.


LEVEL 2 SOURCE DATA

The table and map below describe the stream flow reference sites used.

.
  • A new site 18 has been added - near Ararat in Victoria to represent dryness north-west of Melbourne.
  • These plots are of data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and WaterNSW (https://realtimedata.waternsw.com.au/water.stm).
  • These sites do not reflect risk to life or property, rather they are from streams with long records that are not dammed or otherwise signficantly modified, and are intended to reflect underlying hydrological dynamics. Elevated levels or concave drying trends indicate wet landscapes. Near minimum flows or low flows decaying in a convex curve are indicators of a River Drying Event.
  • Note that minimum flows are not zero flows - the value reflects the circumstances at the flow measuring station.
  • Also note that many catchments burnt out during Black Summer, and this may cause anomalous flow dynamics.
  • There are occasional disruptions to data provision, causing gaps in the graphs. These may be removed as datasets are updated.

1. Clyde R at Brooman (site ID 216002)
Min. level = 0.40 m.
2. Macdonald R at Howes Valley (site ID 212021)
Min. level = -0.10 m.
This site has questionable data - the river is notorious for silting up after major wildfires.
3. Goobarragandra R at Macs Crossing (site ID 41000261)
Min. level = 0.90 m.
4. Macalister R at Glencairn (site ID 225219)
Min. level = 0.30 m.
5. Towamba R at Towamba (site ID 220004)
Min. level = 0.35 m.
6. Kowmung R at Cedar Ford (site ID 212260)
Min. level = 0.40 m.
7. Mann R at Mitchell (site ID 204014)
Min. level = 0.20 m.
8. Clarence R at Paddys Flat (site ID 204051)
Min. level = 0.55 m.
9. Hastings R at Mt Seaview (site ID 207015
Min. level = 0.55 m.
10. Barrington R at Bobs Crossing (site ID 208001)
Min. level = 0.58 m.
11. Murrumbidgee R above Tantangara Reservoir (site ID 410535)
Min. level = 0.45 m.
12. Tooma River at Pinegrove (site ID 401014B)
Min. level = 0.88m.
13. Shoalhaven R at Hillview (site ID 215208)
Min. level = 0.45 m.
14. Queanbeyan R at Tinderry (site ID 410734)
Min. level = 0.70 m.
15. Reedy Creek (site ID 403221)
Min. level = 0.22 m.
16. Wadbilliga R at Wadbilliga (site ID 218007)
Min. level = 0.75 m.
17. Gudgenby R at Mt Tennent (site ID 410731)
Min. level = 0.45 m.
18. Hopkins R at Ararat (site ID 236219)
Min. level = 0.075 m.

ARCHIVE

Note that when these are archived, the real-time SSTA maps are for the print date not the issue date.
Mid 8/26
Early 7/26
Early 6/26
Early 5/26
Early 4/26
Early 3/26
Late 1/26 update
Mid 1/26 update
Mid 12/25
End 11/25
Early 11/25
Early 10/25
Early 09/25
Mid 08/25
Early 07/25
Early 06/25
Early 05/25
Mid 04/25
Early 04/25
Early 03/25
Late 01/25
Late 12/24
Early 11/24
Early 10/24
Late 08/24
Early 08/24
Early 07/24
Early 06/24
Early 05/24
Mid 04/24
Mid 03/24
End 02/24
Mid 02/24
End 01/24
Early 01/24
End 12/23
Early 12/23
End 10/23
End of 09/23
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