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Expert Awareness for Fire Behaviour Analysts | ||||||
Almost all fire behaviour prediction systems in use are based on a Fire Danger Index or equivalent. These do not incorporate the key interactions between rugged terrain and weather that act to produce extreme fires. It is important not to base key decisions on inappropriate information. FDIs assume that fire danger is a continuum – i.e. as the weather gets worse the FDI smoothly rises in response, as vice versa. The additional drivers tend to be discrete – they are either active or not. Thus the first step towards fire prediction are a series of questions. For example, if the flame depth exceeds the lifting condensation level, then a pyro-Cb may form, and then the spread will reflect the upper winds only. A rectangular area aligned downwind, 15km wide and 25km wide is then the area under threat. . |